9 overnight Shanghai aluminum main 2406 closed at 20655 up 85, LME aluminum closed at 2569.5 up 24.5, in spot, 9 SMM Huadong spot aluminum ingots rose 190 to 20520 up 60 up 10. The holder of long and short differentiation, Wuxi market offer average price to premium 10, Foshan market basis and price rose, stimulate the holder to actively liquify, offer a discount of 10 to the average price.

In macro terms, exports in April were 2.08 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.1%, imports were 1.56 trillion yuan, an increase of 12.2%, and imports and exports to traditional markets such as Europe and the United States increased from a decline.

On the supply side, production capacity has gradually recovered, and Yunnan electrolytic aluminum production has resumed smoothly; Inner Mongolia Huayun Phase III started production in mid-May. As of May 5, Zhongtai Futures research statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity of 42,833,500 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons over the same period last week; In terms of inventory, the aluminum ingot inventory is normal, the aluminum rod is again exhausted, and the hidden inventory is high. On Thursday, May 9, SMM's main domestic consumption of aluminum ingots inventory 778,000 tons, down 16,000 tons from Monday. In the same period, Shanghai Steel Union statistics of the main domestic consumption of aluminum rod inventory of 223,500 tons, down 9,000 tons from Monday. On May 9, the warehouse receipt of the previous period was about 125,000 tons, an increase of 0.1,400 tons compared with the previous day; On May 9, LME aluminum inventories reported about 480.0 million tons, down 0.28 million tons from the previous day.

In terms of imports and exports, aluminum exports continued high growth in April, and aluminum ingot imports may be reduced. According to the latest data of the General Administration of Customs, in April 22024, China exported 52.0 million tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum; From January to April, the cumulative export of 1.998 million tons, an increase of 8.8%. In March, China imported 380,000 tons of unwrought rolled aluminum and aluminum, and the cumulative import from January to March was 1.1 million tons, an increase of 92.3% year-on-year. Among them, 249,400 tons of imported primary aluminum, 115,600 tons of primary aluminum from Russia, accounting for about 46.4%, and the rest from India, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries.

Aluminum logic and strategy suggestions: Economic growth is falling, the risk of stagflation is rising, Shanghai aluminum is expected to maintain a high wide range of shocks, the fundamental performance is poor, the hidden inventory of aluminum rods is high, the volume of ingots is rising, and it is recommended to operate in a range.

In terms of alumina, the main AO2406 fell 17 to 3760 overnight on the 9th, the average price of Shanxi three networks rose 50 to 3685, and the average price of Shandong three networks rose 30 to 3630, the spot rise has slowed down, and the turnover has declined rapidly.

In terms of supply and demand, high profits stimulate alumina production capacity to improve production stability, but the ore problem has not been solved, and there is still a risk of production reduction. According to Aladdin research, the current alumina production capacity has recovered to 84.2 million tons, an increase of nearly 1 million tons from the end of last month, mainly from Henan Sanmenxia. In the later stage, Shanxi still has 2.1 million tons of production capacity planned to resume production in the near future, Guizhou Guangaluminum's own mine to resume production, plans to increase production by 300,000 tons, Shandong Weiqiao roasting rotation maintenance will be completed in the middle of the year, is expected to increase production by about 1 million tons. In other regions, Inner Mongolia Guxinwang plans to resume production of 500,000 tons in June, and Shandong Hongtuo's 2 million tons relocation project plans to put into operation in June.

In terms of imports and exports, alumina exports were stable in March, and imports remained high. According to customs data, in March, China exported 140,000 tons of alumina, and the cumulative export from January to March was 420,000 tons, an increase of 38.2%. In March, 300,000 tons of alumina were imported, with a cumulative import of about 950,000 tons, an increase of 105.85%, and a net import of 160,000 tons, a cumulative 526,000 tons.

In terms of inventory. On April 25, the national alumina inventory was 4.336 million tons, down 33,000 tons from last Thursday, of which the platform and in-transit inventory was 855,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons, and the port inventory was 261,000 tons, down 37,000 tons. On May 9, the warehouse receipt of alumina delivery in the previous period was 131,400 tons, an increase of 60,300 tons from the previous day; Plant depot Zhongzhou Aluminum increased 9000 tons.

Alumina logic and strategy: high profits to stimulate the factory production and increase production, production capacity is still in the recovery stage, the diversification of mine supply sources, but the domestic mine as a whole is still limited, the supply of further tension is expected to be weak; The current deviation is large, the delivery arbitrage increases, the warehouse receipt pressure continues to rise, and aluminum oxide is expected to maintain a high wide range of shocks, and the short-term operation is appropriate.