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Guangzhou futures: aluminum price consolidation or again after the correction

Guangzhou futures: aluminum price consolidation or again after the correction

2024-05-13

The US job market sentiment is cooling, the Federal Reserve has spoken dovish, the market is expected to cut interest rates in advance, the recent domestic real estate consumption is frequently good, the manufacturing PMI in April remained in the expansion range, on the whole, macro sentiment is still more. Upstream supply is still tight, domestic electrolytic aluminum supply and production remain stable, Yunnan region is expected to complete production in June, the ratio of aluminum to water will increase again, Guangxi aluminum rod joint production reduction actual effect is little, aluminum rod processing fees continue to be low, aluminum market downstream demand performance differentiation is obvious, traditional consumption such as real estate, infrastructure performance is weak, emerging plate consumption to provide support, External aluminum exports are relatively strong, in terms of inventory, Lun aluminum has been substantially transferred, and the warehouse storage is mostly from Port Klang in Asia, overseas inventory is highly manifested, and domestic storage is maintained steadily. Overseas inventory is highly apparent to suppress overseas aluminum prices, domestic Yunnan production increase, Guangxi production reduction on aluminum water supply to form an increase, downstream consumption traditional items still form a drag, foreign exports, emerging plate consumption support, aluminum prices upward pressure in the short term, the current domestic market is relatively stable than overseas performance, Shanghai aluminum price focus completed upward shift, Back again to look at 19500-19800 line support.

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