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New lake futures: aluminum early review on May 9

New lake futures: aluminum early review on May 9


Aluminum: The US dollar index has strengthened for days, and the overnight external metal fell across the board, and the LME aluminum price for three months fell 0.91% to $2,545 / ton. Domestic night trading is all the way up, the real estate policy has boosted the market. Shanghai aluminum main contract closed above 20,585 yuan/ton. The morning spot market activity increased, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, more replenishment, traders are also active, and cargo-holders are reluctant to sell. The mainstream transaction price in the East China market is about 20,370 yuan/ton, which is about 50 discount to the futures. The mainstream transaction price in the Guangdong market is around 20,370 yuan/ton. At present, consumption is resilient, maintaining stability and increasing, and falling prices also stimulate receiving goods. Production continues to increase steadily, but it will not be reflected in aluminum ingot production, and imports remain at a loss. The current supply and demand fundamentals are generally acceptable, and the apparent inventory reduction gives certain support to prices. However, the current fundamentals are actually driven by limited, in the case of cooling macro policy, prices have a certain downward pressure, but it is expected to fluctuate little. Exercise caution when operating a short line.

Alumina: Spot continued to strengthen superimposed aluminum price rebound led, alumina futures rose overnight, the main contract closed higher than 3792 yuan/ton. Morning spot market to maintain a high degree of activity, the current arbitrage trading enthusiasm, traders are willing to buy strong, and suppliers more price reluctant to sell, the recent part of the electrolytic aluminum plant also have inquiry performance, circulation supply further tightened, spot prices continue to rise, local transaction prices rose to 3700 yuan/ton level. In the short term, the current trading is positive, but the production increase is still limited, and the spot tension is difficult to ease temporarily, supporting the spot price to continue to strengthen. However, the futures price still maintains a certain premium, and as delivery approaches, the futures price will gradually move closer to the spot. Recent macro sentiment cooling, aluminum and other non-ferrous metal prices generally correction, alumina futures prices also have a certain impact. Short-term alumina futures or weak shocks, in the case of strong spot prices, the futures price is difficult to fall. Exercise caution when operating a short line.