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Zhongtai Futures: Aluminum early review on May 27

Zhongtai Futures: Aluminum early review on May 27


24 overnight Shanghai aluminum main 2407 closed at 21015 up 125, LME aluminum closed at 2658 up 44, in spot, 24 SMM East China spot aluminum ingots reported 20790 up 40 stick 100 up 20.

On the macro front, the Fed minutes showed the need to keep interest rates at current levels for longer than previously thought. Europe and the United States in May, the preliminary manufacturing recovery, performance exceeded expectations.

On the supply side, production capacity has gradually recovered, and Yunnan electrolytic aluminum production has resumed smoothly; Inner Mongolia Huayun Phase III started production. As of May 26, Sino-Thai futures research statistics of domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity in 432.135 million tons, an increase of 70,000 tons over the same period last week; In terms of inventory, aluminum ingot inventory is blocked, and aluminum rods are maintained to be stored. On May 23, SMM's main domestic consumption of aluminum ingots inventory was 767,000 tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from Monday. In the same period, Shanghai Steel Union statistics of the main domestic consumption of aluminum rod inventory 194,000 tons, down 0.35 million tons from Monday. On May 24, the warehouse receipt of the previous period was about 148,000 tons, an increase of 0.07,000 tons over the previous day; On May 24, LME aluminum inventories reported about 1.125 million tons, down 0.3 million tons from the previous day.

In terms of imports and exports, aluminum exports continued high growth in April, and aluminum ingot imports may be reduced. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in April 2024, China exported 520,000 tons of unforged aluminum and aluminum. From January to April, the cumulative export of 1.998 million tons, an increase of 8.8%. In April, China imported 380,000 tons of unforged rolled aluminum and aluminum, the same as the previous month, and the cumulative import of 1.49 million tons from January to April, an increase of 86.6%. Among them, 219,000 tons of primary aluminum imports, the import window has been deeply closed in April, and the amount of imported aluminum ingots is expected to drop to less than 150,000 tons in May.

Aluminum logic and strategy suggestions: market sentiment falls from a high level, the basic spot performance is weak, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate in the range, the center of gravity has moved up compared to the previous period, and it is suggested that the dip can be appropriate to do more.

In terms of alumina, the 24th overnight main AO2407 to 4099 up 22, Shanxi three net average price of 3850 up 30, Shandong three net average price of 3780 up 28, plate prices rose, driving spot prices continue to pull up.

On the supply and demand side, the demand side steadily increased, and the supply side capacity continued to recover. On the supply side, ore production has increased, small-scale cave mining has started to resume production, Chinalco, State Power Investment and other self-owned mines are actively promoting the resumption of work and production, and Chinalco Yangjiashan mine has started to resume production. In terms of alumina capacity, according to the survey statistics of Mysteel this week, as of this Thursday (2024/5/23), the national alumina capacity utilization rate was 84.69%, an increase of 0.7 percentage points from last week. Guizhou Wuchuan alumina repair completed to full production of 1 million tons, Xiangjiang Wanji near the stage of ore replenishment increased, the basic production to full load state, the current operating level of about 1.4 million tons. According to Aladdin research statistics, this week's operating capacity rose to 85.2 million tons, an increase of 850,000 tons last week.

In terms of imports and exports, alumina exports were stable in April, and imports fell sharply. According to customs data, China exported 130,000 tons of alumina in April, and the cumulative export from January to April was 550,000 tons, an increase of 45.6%. In April, 108,400 tons of alumina were imported, with a cumulative import of about 1.056 million tons, an increase of 75.5% year-on-year, and net imports turned negative.

In terms of inventory, warehouse receipt inventory continued to increase significantly, and port spot inventory declined significantly. According to the data of the steel Union, the national alumina inventory on May 9 was 4.249 million tons, down 29,000 tons from the 6th, of which the platform and in-transit inventory was 874,000 tons, an increase of 12,000 tons, and the port inventory was 143,000 tons, down 19,000 tons. On May 24, the warehouse receipt of alumina delivery in the previous period was 183,000 tons, an increase of 12,600 tons from the previous day, and the storage of Chalco's Zhongzhou plant was 9,000 tons.

Alumina logic and strategy: The gradual recovery of domestic ore, profit stimulation, production capacity, production resumption has been accelerated, the supply shortage situation has improved; Technical alumina high fall, trading volume and open positions have fallen, the price is expected to enter a high wide-range shock stage.