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Hongye Futures: Aluminum early review on May 20

Hongye Futures: Aluminum early review on May 20


China's heavy property policy exceeded expectations and the market frenzy has been reignited. Commodities and Chinese stocks surged Friday evening.

China has introduced a number of heavy real estate policies, including lowering the down payment ratio, lowering the provident fund interest rate, abolishing the minimum interest rate of commercial loans and 300 billion yuan of affordable housing re-loans. China's April economic data released, industrial output above the designated size exceeded expectations, consumption and fixed asset investment fell short of expectations.

American copper continues to press, more than London copper premium 10%. Copper continued to rise to record highs on Friday, closing at $10,715. Shanghai copper opened the evening session higher to a new high, closing at 85,270. Trading positions in Shanghai copper rose, and the market sentiment was optimistic. The manufacturing data in Europe and the United States is not good, the domestic economic data in April is less than expected, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates early, and the macro fundamentals are neutral. Overseas demand is poor, domestic spot demand has not improved, and global inventories are high. The sharp rise in US copper led to a strong market across the board, and the short term tight market may continue. Upper pressure 90,000, lower support 75,000. Today, the premium of international copper to Shanghai copper rose to 1232, the outer price is stronger than the inner price, pay attention to the possibility of international copper arbitrage.

Crude oil surged on Friday, and Lun Aluminum continued to rally, closing at $2,621. Shanghai aluminum rose to a new high in the evening session, closing at 21,060. Shanghai aluminum trading decline positions rise, market sentiment toward neutral. Shanghai aluminum price is stronger than Lun aluminum, the net import of primary aluminum in March increased by 90%. Aluminum spot demand slightly improved, inventory fell slightly this week, there is some support below, but the late Russian aluminum large probability into Asia, the overall supply and demand balance. Smelting profits are too high, Shanghai aluminum short-term high volatility, medium-term adjustment pressure, pay attention to risks. Top pressure 22,000, bottom support 19,000