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South China Futures: the overall adjustment of nonferrous metals is mainly, and the callback still depends on the opportunity of bubu

South China Futures: the overall adjustment of nonferrous metals is mainly, and the callback still depends on the opportunity of bubu

2024-06-12

Shanghai aluminum main closed at 20,905 yuan/ton on Monday, -1.48% month-on-month, Lun aluminum closed at $2,544 / ton, -1.51% month-on-month. Alumina main closed at 3781 yuan/ton, month-on-month -1.23%.

[Macro environment] On Friday last week, under the influence of the Chinese central bank's announcement that gold reserves remained unchanged in May, and the unexpected US non-farm employment report in May, precious metals fell sharply, while having a greater impact on nonferrous metals.

1, according to Mysteel, affected by the supply of natural gas, a large alumina enterprise in Chongqing plans to press a roaster on 15-17, and stop the roaster during the gas shutdown, and gradually resume on 21. The decline in production may lead to shipment delays in the short term, but the total monthly roasting will remain unchanged, and the impact on the execution of existing long orders will be small. 2. According to Mysteel, an alumina enterprise in Guangxi plans to rotate the roaster for maintenance. At present, a roaster has stopped production yesterday, and the required cycle for all three roasters to be repaired is about 30-40 days, which is estimated to affect the output of about 60,000 tons. 3, according to Mysteel, a large alumina enterprise in North China recently repaired some roaster, which is expected to affect the output of about 50,000 tons in the month, and the current operating capacity is reduced to about 3.6 million tons/year. 4. According to SMM, on June 11, 2024, SMM counted the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots of 782,000 tons, and the domestic circulating electrolytic aluminum inventory of 656,000 tons, which was 4,000 tons more than that before the holiday (last Thursday).

[Core logic] Aluminum: Dragon Boat Festival holiday due to non-agricultural performance exceeded expectations, interest rate cut expectations weakened, non-ferrous metals as a whole fell into adjustment. However, considering that the overseas aluminum premium continues to rise, LME inventory began to decline, the proportion of LME warehouse cancellation returned to a high level, the euro GDP performance is expected to further recover, and the export data is still increasing; The supply problem of the domestic cost link is still unresolved, the import window is closed, the upstream factory inventory and the downstream raw material inventory are low, and the terminal demand is still optimistic in the medium and long term, and the support below is strong. However, due to the recent resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum and the joint promotion of new investment, the downstream processing link is more suppressed by high prices, so if the macro interest is not much in the short term, the upward direction is also limited. Alumina: short-term due to the impact of supply cuts, prices or be boosted again. In the medium and long term, the supply of domestic bauxite has been relaxed, but the degree is limited, and the future is still uncertain, so the price is limited. In addition, due to the downstream electrolytic aluminum production with the resumption of production and new production can gradually rise, alumina demand has increased steadily. In summary, the current support for alumina still exists below, and the spot price is still high, and the possibility of further rebound is not ruled out.


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