Aluminum: to the warehouse acceleration, the basic orientation is good

Shanghai aluminum shock small rise on Thursday, spot SMM average price of 20310 yuan/ton, Zhang 200 yuan/ton, the monthly discount of 50 yuan/ton.

The average spot price of Southern storage is 20260 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton, and the discount is 100 yuan/ton for the month. According to SMM, the inventory of aluminum ingots on April 25 was 807,000 tons, a decrease of 37,000 tons from last Thursday. Aluminum rods 233,400 tons, 23,300 tons less than last Thursday.

Us economic growth unexpectedly "cold", core inflation stubborn, data released after the market is expected that the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut time will be delayed to December, the Federal Reserve in 2024 the whole year will only cut about 35 basis points, far lower than the beginning of the forecast. The downstream acceptance of the fundamental aluminum price correction has increased, coupled with the pre-May Day stock demand, consumption has improved, and aluminum ingot inventory has increased significantly. Shanghai aluminum is basically good, but the recent economic data performance of the United States has rekindled expectations of stagflation, limited risk appetite, and aluminum prices are expected to be depressed above the preference for volatility.

Operation suggestion: Wait and see.

Alumina: The balance is expected to tighten further, and alumina is strong

Alumina futures broke strong on Thursday. Spot alumina national average price of 3378 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton from the previous day.

The price of Australian alumina F0B is 380 US dollars/ton, 1.5 US dollars/ton compared with the previous day, equivalent to 3345 yuan/ton, and the import window is closed. The warehouse inventory of the previous period was 72,407 tons, the same as the previous day, and the factory warehouse was 0 tons, the same as the previous day.

Alumina reluctant to sell after a period of fermentation, the spot tight situation is highlighted, and the sentiment of the cargo holder is high. The shortage of ore at the supply end leads to the slow progress of the alumina plant's resumption of production, and it is expected that the ore problem is difficult to solve in a short time. The consumption side is expected to strengthen with the resumption of production in Yunnan after May, pushing up the expectation of tightening the balance. Alumina is expected to continue the strong performance, the operation on the dip, it is recommended to fast forward and fast out, mainly considering the current electrolytic aluminum and alumina are at a high price, the top risk is larger, if the aluminum price enters the adjustment, the current tight balance of alumina or difficult to resist the overall aluminum price adjustment.