On the international front, since November, a new round of Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been escalating, and the humanitarian crisis has intensified. Affected by this incident, the global economic risk aversion climbed, and major economies maintained a diversified pattern. Regardless of countries, the US economic performance has been stable and has declined, and the US bond yield and GDP growth rate have hit a new high of nearly 5% in the third quarter. However, the recent decline in the dollar index has been significant, from a high of 107.3 in early October to a level of 102 on November 29. According to the latest data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), the US manufacturing PMI came in at 46.7% in November, unchanged from the previous month but lower than the 47.6% previously expected. In November, the European manufacturing PMI was 45.8%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, a new high since the second half of the year, but the index level is still below 50% for 16 consecutive months, and at a low level of about 46%. Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Spain, although the manufacturing PMI is at a low level, but compared with the previous month has increased to varying degrees. Among them, the German manufacturing PMI rose for four consecutive months. In November, the Asian manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, the same as the previous month, and it was above 50% for 11 consecutive months, showing that the Asian manufacturing industry did not fluctuate much from the previous month and maintained a relatively stable growth trend. The Asian economy continues to grow steadily, and developing countries represented by China and ASEAN remain an important supporting force for global economic recovery.
In terms of the domestic economy, in November, as the policy effect continues to accumulate and the positive factors of economic operation continue to increase, the National Bureau of Statistics data showed that the manufacturing PMI in the month was 49.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that China's economic prosperity level is stable and has a slowdown, and the basis for recovery still needs to be consolidated. At present, the domestic manufacturing industry shows five characteristics: first, the production index continues to expand; Second, the new orders index is basically flat, reflecting the lack of market demand of manufacturing enterprises accounted for more than 60%, the lack of market demand is still the main difficulty facing the recovery and development of the current manufacturing industry; Third, PMI of large enterprises maintained expansion; Fourth, new growth drivers are growing rapidly. Fifth, business confidence continues to improve. In addition, investment, consumption and exports have also shown signs of recovery to varying degrees, and the domestic economic prosperity has continued to rise. In November, the total value of China's import and export of goods was 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2% year-on-year, indicating that China's foreign trade has been further consolidated. In spite of this, the drag of real estate investment intensified, the repair of fixed asset investment slowed down continuously in the month, and the growth rate continued to be low compared with the previous month.
In terms of industry, the production of non-ferrous metals industry is stable, and the main metal varieties are affected by macroeconomic factors. Seasonally adjusted, the national output of 10 kinds of non-ferrous metals in October was 6.545 million tons, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year. In the same month, the refined copper output was 1.131 million tons, an increase of 13.4%; Primary aluminum production of 3.616 million tons, an increase of 13.4%. In November, the domestic spot market copper and lead prices rose month-on-month and year-on-year, aluminum prices fell month-on-month and rose year-on-year, and zinc prices rose month-on-month and fell year-on-year. According to the overall situation of the market in the previous 11 months, the price of non-ferrous metals this year is better than that of foreign countries, and spot is better than futures. Although the market performance is better than last month, the international environment is increasingly complex and severe, the problem of insufficient international and domestic demand has not been solved, coupled with the structural contradictions and cyclical factors of the domestic economy, the foundation for continued recovery still needs to be consolidated, and the recent performance of the non-ferrous industry is not as expected. The "Fourth quarter of 2023 non-ferrous metals enterprise confidence Index" released by the China Non-ferrous Metals Industry Association shows that the current non-ferrous metals enterprise confidence index is 49.0, lower than the critical point 50, down 1.5 points from the previous quarter. According to the survey, the majority of non-ferrous enterprises have some concerns about the future production and operation efficiency, and the prospects for improving demand in the future downstream market are still not confident enough.
From December 11 to 12, the Central Economic Work Conference was held. The meeting pointed out that we must see that China's economic development faces the triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectations. At the same time, the meeting requested that next year, we should adhere to the principle of seeking progress while maintaining stability, promoting stability through progress, establishing first and then breaking down, adopting more policies conducive to stabilizing expectations, stabilizing growth and stabilizing employment, and actively making progress in changing the growth model, adjusting the structure, improving quality and increasing efficiency, so as to consolidate the foundation for steady and sound development. It is believed that in the future, with the continuous landing of macro policies, the production and operation of the non-ferrous metal industry will gradually improve.